William D. Green: Study assumed the worst about Minneapolis public schools

Addressing the subject of high school graduation rates without taking into account family mobility is akin to discussing economics without factoring in inflation; the statistics are useful, depending on the type of propaganda one is trying to promote, but not truthful.

The Johns Hopkins study of graduation rates that was unveiled in the Oct. 30 Star Tribune presents statistics taken so far out of context as to be virtually meaningless to any thoughtful discussion of what is going on in the Twin Cities' school systems.

This study presumes to show -- as clearly demonstrated by the term "dropout factories" -- that students in these institutions are "dropping out" at rates of more than 40 percent. In fact, what it really shows is that these Minneapolis schools happen to be in economically unstable, high-poverty areas. For many families, employment here is sporadic. Meanwhile, home foreclosure rates are skyrocketing. And open-enrollment laws have spawned school competition in greater abundance than in almost any other area of the country.

Researcher Bob Balfanz may believe that "while some of the missing students transferred, most dropped out," but the real statistics indicate otherwise. Also, how would he know, given the fact that students who transfer are not tracked from one school to another in this study? And it's wonderful that his study took into account "local events such as plant closings," but what of systemic mobility?

Students are leaving Minneapolis public schools; that we know. And we are considering revolutionary means to improve academics and earn the trust of parents in our community. We also know that a great number of these students are moving to other schools in the area. To assume statistically that every single one of these students is "dropping out," and thereby failing to graduate from any school, is absurd.

In fact, if a Minneapolis student transfers from Patrick Henry High to North High and graduates on time from North, that student would, in this study, still be considered a "dropout" from Patrick Henry.

This study has surfaced only two months after the most recent No Child Left Behind report, which showed that six of the seven main Minneapolis high schools had significant increases in their graduation rates this past school year. Even given its myriad shortcomings as a system, No Child Left Behind takes mobility into account when measuring graduation rates.

For example, look at Patrick Henry High, which was listed on this "dropout factory" list. Statistics from the Minnesota Department of Education show that only 22 students from the Patrick Henry senior class of 2005-2006 had dropped out since their freshman year.

We know this because the state actually tracks those students who transfer to other schools; the Johns Hopkins study doesn't.

So, according to the district's enrollment figures, 460 students entered the 2002-2003 freshman class at Patrick Henry High. At the end of their senior year, 2005-2006, 179 of these students graduated and 259 had transferred to other schools or were continuing to pursue their high school diploma through other means.

In other words, Johns Hopkins researchers claim that more than 40 percent of Patrick Henry students drop out before graduation; we've shown the most recent figures to be less than 5 percent. It is our belief that schools like Roosevelt and North will show similar results.

One final note: In its 2007 Challenge Index, the Washington Post rated Patrick Henry among the top 3 percent of all public high schools nationally and seventh best among all public high schools in Minnesota.

Somehow, that would seem to be inconsistent with appearing on a "dropout factory" list.

William D. Green is superintendent of the Minneapolis public schools